At a Glance
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven in the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico early this week.
- Tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will spread heavy rain into southern Florida before entering the Gulf.
- This system is likely to develop into a tropical depression Monday, then a tropical storm Monday night.
- Heavy rain will be the main impact for the northern Gulf Coast.
- Gusty winds, rip currents, high surf and some coastal flooding are also possible impacts.
The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven late Sunday, triggering tropical storm watches for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
The declaration of a “potential tropical cyclone” by the NHC allows advisories to be issued on systems that have yet to develop but pose a threat of bringing tropical-storm-force winds to land areas within 48 hours.
Tropical storm watches have been posted from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A tropical storm watch is typically issued 48 hours before the onset of tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) that may make preparations difficult or dangerous.
The NHC expects this system to become a tropical depression Monday and a tropical storm Monday night as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and tracks toward the northern Gulf Coast, where heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf will be potential impacts by midweek.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is currently located in the Bahamas, where it is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday to help determine whether it has become a tropical depression.
If it intensifies into a tropical storm (39-plus-mph winds) as the NHC expects, it will be given the name Gordon.
Upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for tropical development in the environment where Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is located, and the system’s thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized.
Parts of southern Florida will see locally heavy rain and gusty winds through early Tuesday as the tropical disturbance moves near the state.
The NHC said 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Florida Keys and South Florida, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible over the southern Florida Peninsula. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in some areas.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts (39 mph or greater) are possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys, according to the NHC.