Will Republicans Lose the Senate in the 2018 Elections?

In November, voters in the United States of America will be going to the polls to determine their local, state, and congressional leadership.

While some hope to see Republicans maintain or even expand their majorities in Congress, others are working on creating a “Blue Wave” that will eventually reverse President Donald Trump’s policy efforts.

The question of which major political party will control the Senate is contentious one, as polling sites provide different predictions about the future of the upper house.

There is also the question of Oregon, a reliably Blue State in which the Democrat governor is facing a surprisingly strong Republican challenger.

National Trends

RealClearPolitics averaged a series of polls taken over the past couple of weeks from such prominent entities as Rasmussen Reports, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and NPR/Marist, among others.

Even amid the intense debate over the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court, RCP noted little change in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings.

In a report accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics’ average put President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 43.8 percent, with a disapproval rating of 52.6 percent.

This is slightly better than last week, when President Trump scored an approval rating at 43.1 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.3 percent.

For their generic congressional vote, also accessed on Monday, RCP had the Democrats ahead with 48.9 percent, while the Republicans had 41.5 percent.

These numbers are virtually identical to the percentages reported by RCP last week, with RCP reporting Democrats having 49.1 percent, while the Republicans had 41.3 percent.

Senate

There appears to be two different political prediction perspectives emerging among sites that specialize in analyzing data on the future makeup of Congress.

In their “Senate No Toss Ups 2018” map, accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans and Democrats would each have 50 seats. This would make Vice President Mike Pence even more of a crucial tie-breaker for the GOP’s agenda items.

This is a decline from last month, when RCP’s map predicted that the Republicans would maintain a 52-seat majority with Democrats having 48.

However, FiveThirtyEight’s model, updated Monday morning, gives the GOP a 71.2 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the DNC a 28.8 percent chance of gaining control.

The Republicans’ chances of maintaining control is an increase from both last week, when FiveThirtyEight gave them a 68.8 percent chance, and two weeks ago, when the site gave them a 66.1 percent chance.

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Source: Christian Post